It’s still Clinton and Bush as Favorites
By Jeff Koopersmith, Editor Emeritus (1988-2012)
TUESDAY, 28 OCTOBER 2015 -WASHINGTON, DC-This evening Americans have the opportunity to listen to and watch whomever is left in the Twin Bakers Dozen of unprepared for the White House Republican Candidates for the GOP presidential nomination – and that person who will most-likely face Secretary Hillary Clinton 13 months from now remains a mystery.
Tonight’s debate, will include Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rand Paul, and begins at 7 p.m. Central Time. It will last two hours.
One reflects on the paucity of credentials these men and one woman display.
Mr. Trump is a successful master of braggadocio and a moderately successful member of the fabled American one percent – That means he is rich. He’s the almost perfect New Yorker who believes the sun revolves around him and his family – a wonderful family really – giving and mostly honest – but pushing the limits almost all the while. Mr. Trump although he has amassed the money of others primarily, and later made his own, simply does “deals”.
Trump builds new buildings and he builds them cheap in more ways than the just cost. He rehabs old office towers like his hotel marring Central Park and other buildings bearing at least his name on Central Park South, in Florida, Panama, SoHo, Waikiki, and elsewhere. He likes golf courses and thinks they attract the clientele he aims for – people with money, but not classic- these are the artsy types who are willing to overpay for grade C, 4-star hotels and condominiums.
Mr. Trump had a long running television program – more a comedy than a how-to, which featured hiring and firing people who wanted to work for him. I know people who work for Trump and know of people that Trump has fired. They seem to me to be far too gentle for his gang, yet perhaps they were not talented enough to turn little or nothing into millions which I admit is Trump’s definite magic.
Can Donald Trump turn a sulking America into a happy place filled with almost total employment, universal health care, and even joy?
I don’t know. I do know that political writers are praying he gets the nod – because no one has so interested the American public than Donald Trump nor entertained the intellectual elite in spades.
Aside from Ben Carson, MD – Trump is yet leading in many polls that mean little or nothing for either Carson or Trump. There is far too much ahead to predict anything but what might happen the day such a poll is taken.
Speaking of Ben Carson – he is, to most of us, a conundrum. Carson poses an interesting problem: Where did he come from aside from an operating room, and what does he truly want, and how does a man considered by some to be a genius, decide to become a Republican, who believes in: “Life, his God; the abolition of Obamacare; the end of Hispanics crossing our borders; and more which are normally a set of unprincipled principles usually ascribed to Americans who are largely not very wealthy (though some are) but want to be – so very, very badly; and often to someone’s disadvantage.
This brings up a question I will grant somewhat short shrift. “Primaries and Caucuses” – two ridiculous activities that serve to enrich people living in states that hold these silly elections, and test only the ability of a candidate’s talent pool to pay hundreds well enough to bribe, even threaten, primary voters to get the polls, for that is the main problem facing each Republican candidate – now ten of them, and earlier nearly twenty if you count the maybes.
These primary elections are ludicrous because they measure mostly the whims and condition of the American average voter that is far different than the norm.
Are people living in California and New York akin to those in Iowa and New Hampshire or South Carolina? Do most people living in Iowa or New Hampshire live in large cities? Do South Carolinians concern themselves with social problems, racism, poverty, and more unfairnss as do the more urbane, and by the way, majority of Americans? The answer is “No”.
Thus my short conclusion is that primaries be held in all states on the same date to choose each party’s candidate for President. Period.
Then we have a good idea of who the majority thinks might be the best for all Americans – not just the ones who are wined and dined in Podunkity locales because they have their election earliest?
If you want to be president – then you simply must visit all fifty states at two different stages – the primary and the general.
Every four years I normally write a column titled “Who Care What Iowans Think” and it is widely read. Perhaps I will do the same early next year, or perhaps I won’t because I know it will do no good to change this one assured insult to a true Democracy reflecting every American – not only the ones in the states with early primaries.
I believe now, in October of 2015, that neither Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, nor Rand Paul will win the presidential nod even if one of them “takes the gold” in Iowa and New Hampshire. I think that Jeb Bush yet has the potential, along with Marco Rubio, and even John Kasich to do so, and will maintain this better chance as long as their campaign funding and illegal (to me) PAC millions hold out.
Carly Fiorina, who used complaining as her way to save herself from drowning will not last much longer unless she finds a political sugar-daddy to keep her in the mix.
Chris Christie who has little chance to be re-elected to any office, will also fade quickly for lack of money and necessary intelligence.
Rand Paul is just too much like his father – and crazier than a loon in my opinion. He might last a bit longer – butwill not prevail in either of the three earlier primary/caucus circuses even though his people tell him he could win at South Carolina.
Ted Cruz who is supposed to be brighter than most, has proved an awful campaigner and strategist and has some superbly weird ideas that do not fit his posed biography.
Mike Huckabee – a most dastardly choice in that he is treacherous and cowardly-continuing and sneakily to conceal himself behind God, therefore once again attempting to fool those who truly believe. Huckabee like others in modern history only runs for the presidency to feather his, his friend’s, and family’s treasure. I don’t think, for a moment, that he ever believed he might win unless the entire United States became, overnight, exactly like Arkansas when he was miraculously elected its Governor.
So, for me, its down to Bush, Rubio, and Kasich.
My wager is still on Bush.
His ability to connect with the average American voter is suspect, but he commands a virtual army of Bush-lovers and donors that can roll over the others like a tidal wave – and beside he’s a nice guy with a Hispanic wife and does not display snobbishness.
Bush is also not identified with the crazy-wing of the Republican party made up of Tea Party nuts and warmongers. If he stays away from the far right – and even teases them a bit, he will re-emerge more powerfully.
Marco Rubio comes in second on my short list. He is very smart and agile. His problem is that he is minority in an eight-year long demonstration that we are still a racist nation. He is also perceived as somewhat too young and uncontrolled for the Oval Office. However, keep your eye on him – he will try again – and then he might be successful if he tones down the RIGHT side of his brain and matures.
For me, it’s another Bush or Senator Rubio who’ll get the Republican nod if there is any sanity left among conservative America.
Either way – at this juncture – just about a year before the Presidential election in November of 2016, either Bush or Rubio will fall to Hillary Clinton barring any occurrence of heavily disruptive action(s) in this nation or around the world – Even For News’.